MB AI · Intelligence Brief · Value gap · June 10, 2026

18-24 Month Escrow: How AI Risk Is Already Written Into SPAs

Regulatory AI risk is no longer an abstract boardroom discussion. It already has its line in the contract — and that line locks up part of your price.
David Roux · MB AI Value Intelligence · SKEMA

When a risk can't be eliminated before closing, deal lawyers neutralize it another way: they hold back part of the price. That's the escrow — money locked up, released only if the risk doesn't materialize. On AI, that mechanism is already in place.

Dedicated escrows or holdbacks for AI risk should be established, with durations of 18 to 24 months.
Reed Smith · The AI M&A playbook (2026)

What an AI escrow really costs the seller

An 18-to-24-month escrow on AI risk means, for the seller, a portion of the price tied up for two years, conditioned on the absence of enforcement or a compliance failure. It isn't a nominal discount — but it's frozen value, unavailable, at risk. And the vaguer the AI Act exposure, the wider and longer the holdback the buyer demands.

Reed Smith also notes targeted indemnities on training-data rights, open-source and third-party data — exactly the areas the EU AI Act (Article 10, data governance) puts under pressure.

The score reduces the holdback

The size and duration of an escrow don't come out of thin air: they reflect the buyer's uncertainty. The more documented and bounded the risk, the smaller the holdback. A D7™ score — AI Act exposure characterized across 7 dimensions, evidence levels PROVEN/INFERRED/ABSENT, clauses ready to insert — turns an "AI grey zone" into a quantified risk. That's what takes an escrow from 20% over 24 months down to a targeted, short holdback.

Reduce the holdback before it's imposed on you
D7™ score · R&W / escrow clauses ready to insert · enforceable attestation
AI Act M&A due diligence →
Sources: Reed Smith — The AI M&A playbook (2026) · Skadden — M&A in the AI Era · Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, Art. 10.
MB AI Value Intelligence · mb-ai.frD7™ · EU AI Act + GDPR · © 2026